Usefulness of a pluralistic approach in sentinel surveillance: seasonal influenza activity based on case counts per sentinel site in the National Epidemiological Surveillance of Infectious Diseases Program and test counts, case counts, and test positivity from the National Hospital Organization.

In Japan, based on the National Epidemiological Surveillance of Infectious Diseases (NESID) Program, influenza cases from ~5,000 sentinel sites are monitored weekly as part of influenza surveillance (as number of influenza cases/sentinel site). One limitation is that the number of influenza tests conducted is not reported. Separately, the National Hospital Organization (NHO), with ~140 hospitals, routinely publishes three indicators: number of influenza tests, influenza-positive case counts, and test positivity. We used NESID and NHO data from April 2011 to June 2022 to assess the usefulness of multiple indicators to monitor influenza activity. Temporal trends of the NHO and NESID indicators were similar, and NHO indicator levels well-correlated with those of the NESID indicator. Influenza positivity in the NHO data, however, showed an earlier rise and peak time compared to the NESID indicator. Importantly, through the non-epidemic summer periods and the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, a sizable number of influenza tests continued to be done at NHO hospitals, with results showing considerably low case counts and test positivity. These data show that a relatively small number of sentinel sites is sufficient to monitor influenza activity nationally, and, that utilizing multiple indicators can increase our confidence in situational awareness and data interpretations.

Epidemiologic Trends and Distributions of Imported Infectious Diseases Among Travelers to Japan Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic, 2016 to 2021: A Descriptive Study.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the trends of imported infectious diseases among travelers to non-endemic countries during the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. This article aimed to describe those among travelers to Japan. METHODS: This is a descriptive study based on national surveillance data. Imported infectious disease cases were defined as those with a reported overseas source of infection among 15 diseases pre-selected based on the probability and impact of importation. The number of notified cases from April 2016 to March 2021 were described by disease and time of diagnosis. The relative ratio and absolute difference in case counts-both by number and per arrival-were calculated by disease comparing those from the pandemic period (April 2020-March 2021) to the pre-pandemic period (April 2016-March 2020). RESULTS: A total of 3,524 imported infectious disease cases were diagnosed during the study period, including 3,439 cases before and 85 cases during the pandemic. The proportionate distribution of diseases changed but notification counts of all 15 diseases decreased during the pandemic. Accounting for arrivals, however, seven diseases showed a two-fold or greater increase, with a notable absolute increase per million arrivals for amebiasis (60.1; 95% confidence interval [CI], 41.5-78.7), malaria (21.7; 95% CI, 10.5-33.0), and typhoid fever (9.3; 95% CI, 1.9-16.8). CONCLUSION: The epidemiology of imported infectious diseases changed during the pandemic. While the number of imported infectious disease cases decreased, the number of cases per arrivals increased considerably both in relative and absolute terms for several diseases of public health and clinical importance.

Immune escape and waning immunity of COVID-19 monovalent mRNA vaccines against symptomatic infection with BA.1/BA.2 and BA.5 in Japan.

BACKGROUND: Repeated emergence of variants with immune escape capacity and waning immunity from vaccination are major concerns for COVID-19. We examined whether the surge in Omicron subvariant BA.5 cases was due to immune escape or waning immunity through vaccine effectiveness (VE) evaluation. METHODS: A test-negative case-control study was conducted in 16 clinics/hospitals during the BA.1/BA.2-dominant and BA.5-dominant periods. VE against symptomatic infection was estimated after adjusting for age, sex, comorbidity, occupation, testing frequency, prior infection, close contact history, clinic/hospital, week, and preventive measures. Absolute VE (aVE) was calculated for 2/3/4 doses, compared to the unvaccinated. Relative VE (rVE) was calculated, comparing 3 vs 2 and 4 vs 3 doses. RESULTS: 13,025 individuals were tested during the BA.1/BA.2-dominant and BA.5-dominant periods with similar baseline characteristics. For BA.1/BA.2, aVE was 52 % (95 %CI:34-66) 14 days-3 months post-dose 2, 42 % (29-52) > 6 months post-dose 2, 71 % (64-77) 14 days-3 months post-dose 3, and 68 % (52-79) 3-6 months post-dose 3. rVE was 49 % (38-57) 14 days-3 months post-dose 3 and 45 % (18-63) 3-6 months post-dose 3. For BA.5, aVE was 56 % (27-73) 3-6 months post-dose 2, 32 % (12-47) > 6 months post-dose 2, 70 % (61-78) 14 days-3 months post-dose 3, 59 % (48-68) 3-6 months post-dose 3, 50 % (29-64) > 6 months post-dose 3, and 74 % (61-83) ≥ 14 days post-dose 4. rVE was 56 % (45-65) 14 days-3 months post-dose 3, 39 % (27-48) 3-6 months post-dose 3, 25 % (-2-45) > 6 months post-dose 3, and 30 % (-6-54) ≥ 14 days post-dose 4. CONCLUSIONS: Booster doses initially provided high protection against BA.5 at a level similar to that against BA.1/BA.2. However, the protection seemed shorter-lasting against BA.5, which likely contributed to the surge. Furthermore, rVE post-dose 4 was low even among recent vaccinees. These results support the introduction of variant-containing vaccines and emphasize the need for vaccines with longer duration of protection.

Unprecedented increase in syphilis cases among heterosexual men and women in Japan, 2021-2022.

Based on national surveillance data, we describe an unprecedented increase in syphilis case reports in Japan, with a surge in 2021-2022 reaching 10141 cases in Week 42, 2022, a 1.7-fold increase over the same period in 2021. This already represented the highest annual case count in nearly half a century; by Week 52, 2022, the number reached 12 966, far surpassing the 7978 cases in 2021. Predominantly affecting heterosexual men and young women, the proportionate increase in primary and secondary syphilis cases suggests a true increase in incidence. The syphilis surge during the pandemic poses a serious public health concern and underscores the importance of adequate testing and preventive measures.

Effectiveness of BA.1- and BA.4/BA. 5-Containing Bivalent COVID-19 mRNA Vaccines Against Symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Infection During the BA.5-Dominant Period in Japan.

In this multicenter, prospective, test-negative, case-control study in Japan, the effectiveness of both BA.1-containing and BA.4/BA.5-containing bivalent coronavirus disease 2019 mRNA vaccines against symptomatic infection during the BA.5-dominant period was high compared with no vaccination (65% and 76%) and moderate compared with monovalent vaccines administered over half a year earlier (46% combined).

SARS-CoV-2 Variants and Age-Dependent Infection Rates among Household and Nonhousehold Contacts.

To determine the effects of age and variants of concern on transmission of SARS-CoV-2, we analyzed infection rates among close contacts over 4 periods in Toyama Prefecture, Japan. Among household contacts, odds of infection were 6.2 times higher during the period of the Omicron variant than during previous periods, particularly among children and adolescents.

Nationwide epidemiologic and genetic surveillance of hepatitis E in Japan, 2014-2021.

Hepatitis E virus (HEV) is an emerging causative agent of acute hepatitis. To clarify the epidemiology of HEV and characterize the genetic diversity of the virus in Japan, nationwide enhanced surveillance and molecular characterization studies of HEV in Japan were undertaken from 2014 to 2021. In total, 2770 hepatitis E cases were reported, of which 88% were domestic cases, while only 4.1% represented cases following infection abroad. In addition, 57% of domestic infections occurred in males aged in their 40s-70s. For domestic cases, infection via pork meat consumption continued to be the most reported route. Analysis of the 324 sequences detected between 2016 and 2021 showed that the majority of domestic HEV strains belong to Genotype 3a (G3a) and G3b. In contrast, six of eight cases of G1 HEV reflected infection abroad. Our results suggest that HEV is circulating widely in Japan, with genotypes G3a and G3b being most prevalent. Continued surveillance is necessary to monitor future trends and changes in the epidemiology of HEV in Japan.

Coronavirus Disease 19 (COVID-19) Vaccine Effectiveness Against Symptomatic Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Infection During Delta-Dominant and Omicron-Dominant Periods in Japan: A Multicenter Prospective Case-control Study (Factors Associated with SARS-CoV-2 Infection and the Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccines Study).

BACKGROUND: Although several coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines initially showed high efficacy, there have been concerns because of waning immunity and the emergence of variants with immune escape capacity. METHODS: A test-negative design case-control study was conducted in 16 healthcare facilities in Japan during the Delta-dominant period (August-September 2021) and the Omicron-dominant period (January-March 2022). Vaccine effectiveness (VE) against symptomatic severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection was calculated for 2 doses for the Delta-dominant period and 2 or 3 doses for the Omicron-dominant period compared with unvaccinated individuals. RESULTS: The analysis included 5795 individuals with 2595 (44.8%) cases. Among vaccinees, 2242 (55.8%) received BNT162b2 and 1624 (40.4%) received messenger RNA (mRNA)-1273 at manufacturer-recommended intervals. During the Delta-dominant period, VE was 88% (95% confidence interval [CI], 82-93) 14 days to 3 months after dose 2 and 87% (95% CI, 38-97) 3 to 6 months after dose 2. During the Omicron-dominant period, VE was 56% (95% CI, 37-70) 14 days to 3 months since dose 2, 52% (95% CI, 40-62) 3 to 6 months after dose 2, 49% (95% CI, 34-61) 6+ months after dose 2, and 74% (95% CI, 62-83) 14+ days after dose 3. Restricting to individuals at high risk of severe COVID-19 and additional adjustment for preventive measures (ie, mask wearing/high-risk behaviors) yielded similar estimates, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In Japan, where most are infection-naïve, and strict prevention measures are maintained regardless of vaccination status, 2-dose mRNA vaccines provided high protection against symptomatic infection during the Delta-dominant period and moderate protection during the Omicron-dominant period. Among individuals who received an mRNA booster dose, VE recovered to a high level.

Social and Behavioral Factors Associated with Lack of Intent to Receive COVID-19 Vaccine, Japan.

Persons in Japan who did not intend to receive COVID-19 vaccines after widespread rollout were less likely than others to engage in preventive measures or to be afraid of getting infected or infecting others. They were also not less likely to engage in potentially high-risk behaviors, suggesting similar or higher exposure risks.

Association of severe COVID-19 outcomes with radiological scoring and cardiomegaly: findings from the COVID-19 inpatients database, Japan.

PURPOSE: We aimed to characterize novel coronavirus infections based on imaging [chest X-ray and chest computed tomography (CT)] at the time of admission. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We extracted data from 396 patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 who were managed at 68 hospitals in Japan from January 25 to September 2, 2020. Case patients were categorized as severe (death or treatment with invasive ventilation during hospitalization) and non-severe groups. The imaging findings of the groups were compared by calculating odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs), adjusted for sex, age, and hospital size (and radiographic patient positioning for cardiomegaly). Chest X-ray and CT scores ranged from 0 to 72 and 0 to 20, respectively. Optimal cut-off values for these scores were determined by a receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. RESULTS: The median age of the 396 patients was 48 years (interquartile range 28-65) and 211 (53.3%) patients were male. Thirty-two severe cases were compared to 364 non-severe cases. At the time of admission, abnormal lesions on chest X-ray and CT were mainly observed in the lower zone/lobe. Among severe cases, abnormal lesions were also seen in the upper zone/lobe. After adjustment, the total chest X-ray and CT score values showed a dose-dependent association with severe disease. For chest X-ray scores, the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.91 (95% CI = 0.86-0.97) and an optimal cut-off value of 9 points predicted severe disease with 83.3% sensitivity and 84.7% specificity. For chest CT scores, the AUC was 0.94 (95% CI = 0.89-0.98) and an optimal cut-off value of 11 points predicted severe disease with 90.9% sensitivity and 82.2% specificity. Cardiomegaly was strongly associated with severe disease [adjusted OR = 24.6 (95% CI = 3.7-166.0)]. CONCLUSION: Chest CT and X-ray scores and the identification of cardiomegaly could be useful for classifying severe COVID-19 on admission.

Impact of the Coming-of-Age Day and ceremony on the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Japan: A natural-experimental study based on national surveillance data.

BACKGROUND: Quantifying the impact on COVID-19 transmission from a single event has been difficult due to the virus transmission dynamics, such as lag from exposure to reported infection, non-linearity arising from the person-to-person transmission, and the modifying effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions over time. To address these issues, we aimed to estimate the COVID-19 transmission risk of social events focusing on the Japanese Coming-of-Age Day and Coming-of-Age ceremony in which "new adults" practice risky behavior on that particular day. METHODS: Using national surveillance data in Japan in 2021 and 2022, we conducted difference-in-differences regression against COVID-19 incidences by setting "new adults" cases as the treatment group and the cases 1 year younger or older than these "new adults" as the control group. In addition, we employed a triple differences approach to estimate the risk of holding the Coming-Age ceremony by using a binary variable regarding the presence or absence of the ceremony in each municipality. RESULTS: We estimated the relative risks (RRs) of the Coming-of-Age Day as 1.27 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.02-1.57) in 2021 and 3.22 (95% CI 2.68-3.86) in 2022. The RR of the Coming-of-Age ceremony was also large, estimated as 2.83 (1.81-4.43) in 2022. CONCLUSIONS: When planning large social events, it is important to be aware of the unique risks associated with these gatherings, along with effective public health messages to best communicate these risks.

Singing Is a Risk Factor for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Infection: A Case-Control Study of Karaoke-Related Coronavirus Disease 2019 Outbreaks in 2 Cities in Hokkaido, Japan, Linked by Whole Genome Analysis.

Background: Singing in an indoor space may increase the risk of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. We conducted a case-control study of karaoke-related coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreaks to reveal the risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infection among individuals who participate in karaoke. Methods: Cases were defined as people who enjoyed karaoke at a bar and who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 by reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction between 16 May and 3 July 2020. Controls were defined as people who enjoyed karaoke at the same bar during the same period as the cases and tested negative. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. ORs of key variables adjusted for each other were also estimated (aOR). Results: We identified 81 cases, the majority of whom were active elderly individuals (median age, 75 years). Six cases died (case fatality ratio, 7%). Among the cases, 68 (84%) were guests, 18 of whom had visited ≧2 karaoke bars. A genome analysis conducted in 30 cases showed 6 types of isolates within 4 single-nucleotide variation difference. The case-control study revealed that singing (aOR, 11.0 [95% CI, 1.2-101.0]), not wearing a mask (aOR, 3.7 [95% CI, 1.2-11.2]), and additional hour spent per visit (aOR, 1.7 [95% CI, 1.1-2.7]) were associated with COVID-19 infection. Conclusions: A karaoke-related COVID-19 outbreak that occurred in 2 different cities was confirmed by the results of genome analysis. Singing in less-ventilated, indoor and crowded environments increases the risk of acquiring SARS-CoV-2 infection. Wearing a mask and staying for only a short time can reduce the risk of infection during karaoke.

Behavioral factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection in Japan.

BACKGROUND: The relative burden of COVID-19 has been less severe in Japan. One reason for this may be the uniquely strict restrictions imposed upon bars/restaurants. To assess if this approach was appropriately targeting high-risk individuals, we examined behavioral factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection in the community. METHODS: This multicenter case-control study involved individuals receiving SARS-CoV-2 testing in June-August 2021. Behavioral exposures in the past 2 weeks were collected via questionnaire. SARS-CoV-2 PCR-positive individuals were cases, while PCR-negative individuals were controls. RESULTS: The analysis included 778 individuals (266 [34.2%] positives; median age [interquartile range] 33 [27-43] years). Attending three or more social gatherings was associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 2.00 [95% CI 1.31-3.05]). Attending gatherings with alcohol (aOR 2.29 [1.53-3.42]), at bars/restaurants (aOR 1.55 [1.04-2.30]), outdoors/at parks (aOR 2.87 [1.01-8.13]), at night (aOR 2.07 [1.40-3.04]), five or more people (aOR 1.81 [1.00-3.30]), 2 hours or longer (aOR 1.76 [1.14-2.71]), not wearing a mask during gatherings (aOR 4.18 [2.29-7.64]), and cloth mask use (aOR 1.77 [1.11-2.83]) were associated with infection. Going to karaoke (aOR 2.53 [1.25-5.09]) and to a gym (aOR 1.87 [1.11-3.16]) were also associated with infection. Factors not associated with infection included visiting a cafe with others, ordering takeout, using food delivery services, eating out by oneself, and work/school/travel-related exposures including teleworking. CONCLUSIONS: We identified multiple behavioral factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection, many of which were in line with the policy/risk communication implemented in Japan. Rapid assessment of risk factors can inform decision making.

Reduced mortality during the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan, 2020: a two-stage interrupted time-series design.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to be a major global health burden. This study aims to estimate the all-cause excess mortality occurring in the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan, 2020, by sex and age group. METHODS: Daily time series of mortality for the period January 2015-December 2020 in all 47 prefectures of Japan were obtained from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan. A two-stage interrupted time-series design was used to calculate excess mortality. In the first stage, we estimated excess mortality by prefecture using quasi-Poisson regression models in combination with distributed lag non-linear models, adjusting for seasonal and long-term variations, weather conditions and influenza activity. In the second stage, we used a random-effects multivariate meta-analysis to synthesize prefecture-specific estimates at the nationwide level. RESULTS: In 2020, we estimated an all-cause excess mortality of -20 982 deaths [95% empirical confidence intervals (eCI): -38 367 to -5472] in Japan, which corresponded to a percentage excess of -1.7% (95% eCI: -3.1 to -0.5) relative to the expected value. Reduced deaths were observed for both sexes and in all age groups except those aged <60 and 70-79 years. CONCLUSIONS: All-cause mortality during the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan in 2020 was decreased compared with a historical baseline. Further evaluation of cause-specific excess mortality is warranted.

Replacement of SARS-CoV-2 strains with variants carrying N501Y and L452R mutations in Japan: an epidemiological surveillance assessment.

Objective: Monitoring the prevalence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants is important due to concerns regarding infectivity, transmissibility, immune evasion and disease severity. We evaluated the temporal and regional replacement of previous SARS-CoV-2 variants by the emergent strains, Alpha and Delta. Methods: We obtained the results of polymerase chain reaction screening tests for variants conducted in multiple commercial laboratories. Assuming that all previous strains would be replaced by one variant, the new variant detection rate was estimated by fitting a logistic growth model. We estimated the transmission advantage of each new variant over the pre-existing virus strains. Results: The variant with the N501Y mutation was first identified in the Kinki region in early February 2021, and by early May, it had replaced more than 90% of the previous strains. The variant with the L452R mutation was first detected in the Kanto-Koshin region in mid-May, and by early August, it comprised more than 90% of the circulating strains. Compared with pre-existing strains, the variant with the N501Y mutation showed transmission advantages of 48.2% and 40.3% in the Kanto-Koshin and Kinki regions, respectively, while the variant with the L452R mutation showed transmission advantages of 60.1% and 71.9%, respectively. Discussion: In Japan, Alpha and Delta variants displayed regional differences in the replacement timing and their relative transmission advantages. Our method is efficient in monitoring and estimating changes in the proportion of variant strains in a timely manner in each region.

Suicide by gender and 10-year age groups during the COVID-19 pandemic vs previous five years in Japan: An analysis of national vital statistics.

Using daily vital statistics data from the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, we provide the first weekly and age-group-specific estimates of the additional suicide burden during the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan by gender, from January through November 2020. Our results indicate that compared with the previous five years, suicide cases in 2020 in Japan have increased from late July to November for women in all age groups and for men in the 20-29 and 80+ years age group. Targeted interventions based on age and gender might be more effective in reducing suicide during the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan.

Epidemiology of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Japan: Descriptive Findings and Lessons Learned through Surveillance during the First Three Waves.

INTRODUCTION: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused unprecedented global morbidity and mortality. Japan has faced three epidemic "waves" of COVID-19 from early 2020 through early 2021. Here we narratively review the three waves in Japan, describe the key epidemiologic features of COVID-19, and discuss lessons learned. METHODS: We assessed publicly available surveillance data, routine surveillance reports, and other relevant sources-multiple indicators were monitored to improve interpretation of surveillance data. Weekly trends for each wave were described based on the number of case notifications; number of tests performed; proportion of those tests that were positive for the novel coronavirus; the prevalent number of COVID-19 hospitalizations (total hospitalizations and those categorized as severe); and number of COVID-19 deaths. For each indicator and wave, we recorded the first calendar week to show an increase over two consecutive previous weeks, along with the peak week. RESULTS: The spring wave was characterized by detection of cases imported from China, followed by notifications of sporadic cases without travel history, clusters, and mild/asymptomatic cases. The summer wave saw a large increase in notifications and a younger age distribution, but in the context of increased testing with lower test positivity. The winter wave brought considerable morbidity and mortality, surpassing the cumulative case counts and fatalities from the earlier waves, with high peak values. Overall, relative to the first wave, the burden of severe outcomes was lower in the second and higher in the third wave, but varied by prefecture. In all three waves, severe outcomes peaked after notification counts and test positivity peaked; severe outcomes were also consistently skewed toward the elderly. CONCLUSIONS: Important lessons were learned from each wave and across waves-some aspects remained constant, while others changed over time. In order to rapidly detect an increase in incidence, continuous, timely, and sensitive surveillance-using multiple information sources with careful interpretations-will be key in COVID-19 control.